Bayes and String Theory

Abstract

What does probability theory tell us about the range of possibilities that a theorist can consider for answers to this problem? Prior to the experimental result he will have some estimate for the probability that string theory is a correct theory of quantum gravity and for the probability that supersymmetry will be observed at the LHC. There are no absolutely correct global values for these probabilities, they are a relative concept. But at the least any answer should be consistent with the laws of probability including Bayes Law. In this essay,  I discuss what we really can say.